Causal Threat Modeling Applied to the Horn of Africa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37266/ISER.2020v8i1.pp76-82Keywords:
DTRA/JD, Improvised Threats, East Africa, K-Means Clustering, Systems Dynamic Model, PAIAbstract
Initially developed to defeat the increasing threat of improvised explosive devices (IED) during the height of the Iraq War in 2003, DTRA/JD quickly evolved into the Department of Defense’s (DoD) main effort in countering and reducing the effect of improvised threats. Following a suggestion from DTRA/JD about project leads, our team reached out to AFRICOM and began working on a problem narrowly tailored toward their mission. AFRICOM’s strategic focus in East Africa and the complex situation involving refugees and internally displaced persons in the region require a systematic method to identify the most prevalent threats and their relationship with one another. This paper describes a method to leverage publicly available information (PAI) and K-Means Clustering to identify threats and model their interdependence using a Systems Dynamic model. The output will show the greatest threat to a region enabling a decision maker within AFRICOM to enact policy to reduce the overall threat level.References
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Published
2021-03-06
How to Cite
Cromer, S., McDonald, C., Monahan, T., Shields, S., & DuBois, P. (2021). Causal Threat Modeling Applied to the Horn of Africa. Industrial and Systems Engineering Review, 8(1), 76-82. https://doi.org/10.37266/ISER.2020v8i1.pp76-82
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