Causal Threat Modeling Applied to the Horn of Africa

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Steven Cromer
Connor McDonald
Thomas Monahan
Seth Shields
Patrick DuBois


Initially developed to defeat the increasing threat of improvised explosive devices (IED) during the height of the Iraq War in 2003, DTRA/JD quickly evolved into the Department of Defense’s (DoD) main effort in countering and reducing the effect of improvised threats. Following a suggestion from DTRA/JD about project leads, our team reached out to AFRICOM and began working on a problem narrowly tailored toward their mission. AFRICOM’s strategic focus in East Africa and the complex situation involving refugees and internally displaced persons in the region require a systematic method to identify the most prevalent threats and their relationship with one another. This paper describes a method to leverage publicly available information (PAI) and K-Means Clustering to identify threats and model their interdependence using a Systems Dynamic model. The output will show the greatest threat to a region enabling a decision maker within AFRICOM to enact policy to reduce the overall threat level.

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How to Cite
Cromer, S., McDonald, C., Monahan, T., Shields, S., & DuBois, P. (2021). Causal Threat Modeling Applied to the Horn of Africa. Industrial and Systems Engineering Review, 8(1), 76-82.


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