Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Techniques for Consequence Analysis of Second and Third Order Effects
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37266/ISER.2015v3i2.pp71-81Abstract
The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is the Department of Defense’s (DOD) official Combat Support Agency for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD). DTRA focuses on WMD and mitigating the consequences of a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high yield explosive threat (CBRNE). The initial direct effects of a CBRNE incident are well defined and documented; however, the second and third order effect’s are complex and not thoroughly understood or documented. Consequence analysis is the practice of analyzing the effects of major events such as a CBRNE event and can assist in predicting the second and third order effects. Currently there is no method to predict or analyze the second and third order effects of CBRNE events. This research focused on identifying the entities associated with a CBRNE event initially. The use of experts and surveys developed an exhaustive list of entities and associated realtionships. The follow-on research focused on the type and strength of the entity relationships. Next, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) techniques identify and evaluate the complex relationships of the second and third order effects. Using a mind mapping computer program, FCM techniques produced second and third order effect relationships. The final product provided a solid first attempt at analyzing a CBRNE event and the associated second and third order effects. Subsequent research will require greater effort to employ system dynamics techniques to enhance the product and develop a more thorough model.
References
Arunraj, N.s. and Maiti, J. (2009). A Methodology for Overall Consequence Modeling in Chemical Industry. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 556-74.
Carter, Ashton B., May, Michael M., and Perry, William J. (2007). The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City. Washington Quarterly, 19-32. Retrieved from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1162/wash.2007.30.4.19.
Collins, Harold E. (1980). Emergency Planning and Preparedness before and after Three Mile Island. IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science 27, 919-23. no. 1.
Dodgen, D., Norwood, A. E., Becker, S. M., Perez, J. T., and Hansen, C. K. (2011). Social, Psychological, and Behavioral Responses to a Nuclear Detonation in a US City: Implications for Health Care Planning and Delivery. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 54-64. Retrieved from http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FDMP%2FDMP5_S1%2FS1935789300003773a.pdf&code=8a82add6ee53f277329e7a33e0a9df0e.
Fitzgerald, Joe, Wollner, Samuel B., Adalja, Amesh A., Morhard, Ryan, Cicero, Anita and Inglesby, Thomas V. (2012). After Fukushima: Managing the Consequences of a Radiological Release. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 228-36. Retrieved from http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2012.0021.
Gerla, Giangiacomo. (2001). Fuzzy Logic: Mathematical Tools for Approximate Reasoning. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Graham, Allison. (2010). Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats. Foreign Affairs 89, 74-85. no. 1. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/20699784?seq=11.
Gray, Steven. (2015). MentalModeler. Retrieved from http://www.mentalmodeler.org/ .
Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2006). Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and High-Yield Explosives Consequences Management. JP 2006-0188. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office.
Lewis, H. W. (1986). The Accident at the Chernobyl, Nuclear Power Plant and Its Consequences. Environment 28, 25. no. 9.
Khan, M. Shamim. (2004). Fuzzy Cognitive Maps With Genetic Algorithm For Goal-Oriented Decision Support. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems: 31-42.
Mago, Vijay K., Morden, Hilary K., Fritz, Charles, Wu, Tiankuang, Namazi, Sara, Geranmayeh, Parastoo, Chattopadhyay, Rakhi, and Dabbaghian, Vahid. (2013). Analyzing the Impact of Social Factors on Homelessness: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 94.
Nyaki, Angela F. (2013). Understanding the Social and Ecological Dynamics of Illegal Bushmeat in Villages Near Serengeti National Park through Community-Based Modeling. Thesis. Mānoa: The University of Hawai’i at Mānoa.
Parnell, Gregory S., Driscoll, Patrick J. and Henderson. Dale L. (2010). Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management. Second Edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Sanchez, Derek. (2014). Consequence Analysis. West Point, New York: Department of Systems Engineering.
Smith, Jim and Beresford, Nicholas. (2014). Chernobyl. Catastrophe and Consequences. Retrieved from http://nozdr.ru/data/media/biblioteka/kolxo3/E_Engineering/Smith%20J.,%20Beresford%20N.A.%20Chernobyl..%20Catastrophe%20and%20consequences%20(Springer,%202005)(ISBN%203540238662)(O)(338s)_E_.pdf.
Tucker, Patrick. (2011). My First Meltdown: Lessons from Fukushima. The Futurist. Retrieved from http://0search.ebscohost.com.usmalibrary.usma.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=edsgao&AN=edsgcl.259704955&site=eds-live.
U.S. Army. (2009). FM 3-24.2 – Tactics in Counterinsurgency. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
The copyediting stage is intended to improve the flow, clarity, grammar, wording, and formatting of the article. It represents the last chance for the author to make any substantial changes to the text because the next stage is restricted to typos and formatting corrections. The file to be copyedited is in Word or .rtf format and therefore can easily be edited as a word processing document. The set of instructions displayed here proposes two approaches to copyediting. One is based on Microsoft Word's Track Changes feature and requires that the copy editor, editor, and author have access to this program. A second system, which is software independent, has been borrowed, with permission, from the Harvard Educational Review. The journal editor is in a position to modify these instructions, so suggestions can be made to improve the process for this journal.
